Washington: At this time of coronavirus crisis when the economy of the country is severely affected, the World Bank on Tuesday has given some hope as it has projected India’s economy to grow at 8.3 per cent in 2021 and 7.5 per cent in 2022. This projection from the World Bank has come even as its recovery is being hampered by an unprecedented second wave of the COVID-19.
In its latest issue of Global Economic Prospects, which the World Bank has released today, noted that in India, an enormous second COVID-19 wave is undermining the sharper-than-expected rebound in activity seen during the second half of Fiscal Year 2020/21, especially in services.
“India’s recovery is being hampered by the largest outbreak of any country since the beginning of the pandemic,” the World Bank said.
In 2020, India’s economy is estimated to have contracted by 7.3 per cent while in 2019, it registered a growth rate of four per cent, the World Bank said, adding that in 2023, India is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent.
In its report, the Bank said that the global economy is set to expand by 5.6 per cent in 2021 – its strongest post-recession pace in 80 years.
“For India, GDP in fiscal year 2021/22 starting from April 2021 is expected to expand 8.3 per cent,” it said.
Activity will benefit from policy support, including higher spending on infrastructure, rural development, and health, and a stronger-than expected recovery in services and manufacturing, it said.
Although the forecast has been revised up by 2.9 percentage points, it marks significant expected economic damage from an enormous second COVID-19 wave and localised mobility restrictions since March 2021, the report said.
Activity is expected to follow the same, yet less pronounced, collapse and recovery seen during the first wave, it said.
“The pandemic will undermine consumption and investment as confidence remains depressed and balance sheets damaged. Growth in FY 2022/23 is expected to slow to 7.5 per cent, reflecting lingering impacts of COVID-19 on household, corporate and bank balance sheets; possibly low levels of consumer confidence; and heightened uncertainty on job and income prospects, it said.
On Tuesday, India reported less than one lakh new coronavirus infections after a gap of 63 days, while the daily positivity rate dropped to 4.62 per cent. A single day rise of 86,498 cases were registered, the lowest in 66 days, taking the total tally of COVID-19 cases to 2,89,96,473. The COVID-19 death toll climbed to 3,51,309 with 2,123 daily deaths, the lowest in 47 days.
(With inputs from PTI)
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